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Stock predictions on Twitter

In a gutsy move, a company called BAMInvestor has started to broadcast its stock market predictions through its Twitter account. As I am writing this, the latest prediction is that crude oil stocks will plunge at the end of September. The BAM in BAMInvestor stands for “Behavioral Analysis of Markets”, which is a method that “…predicts future price movements in human traded markets through the study of market participants’ emotional responses during periods of high emotion and ‘capitulation.’”, according to the web page. A bit further down, there is a sentence that sends my BS detector into overdrive, “The “guts” of the model are based on proprietary computations, the components of which include elements of—but are not exclusive to—the Fibonacci sequence and its golden ratio, fractal studies, and several unique capitulation thresholds.“, but I’ll try to keep an open mind. (Any time fractals are mentioned, I tend to become very skeptical, and with Fibonacci numbers thrown into the mix, it’s starting to sound downright Dan Brown-ish.)

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3 thoughts on “Stock predictions on Twitter

  1. I was almost going to say that the sciency theories of market crashes are not so good either, so maybe they would need some Fibonacci voodoo. And my prime example was going to be http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1827 . . but actually they almost nailed a little crash ther http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1253375902417&chddm=30366&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=SHA:000001&

  2. Mikael Huss on said:

    Ah yes, I remember that press release and was thinking about blogging it at the time but was probably too lazy (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327235.700-physicists-successfully-predict-stock-exchange-plunge.html). I think the Shanghai stock market is doing pretty well again now though? Not that I really have a clue. Some discussion here: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2009/08/econophysicist-flubs-predicting-chinese.html

  3. I didn’t see the press release, just the cocky prediction at arxiv.org . . I have to add that it didn’t go exactly as they forecasted (not as soon and not as violent). Does this mean the log-periodic precursors they talk about will be washed out in the future (as the market adapts to this (actually not so new) information)?

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